Kentucky Derby
Posted: May 1, 2021 Filed under: horses Leave a comment
Used my complex handicapping method on the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
- Known Agenda – 81.33
- Like a King – 75
- Brooklyn Strong – 73.6
- Keepmeinmind – 78
- Sainthood – 79.66
- O Besos – 80.8
- Mandaloun – 85.6
- Medina Spirit – 91.6. Came in second to 15 at the Santa Anita Derby back in April.
- Hot Rod Charlie – 75.57. Has very been fast lately.
- Midnight Bourbon – 85.833
- Dynamic One – 74.6
- Helium – 78.3
- Hidden Stash – 75.2
- Essential Quality – 87.6 . The favorite, undefeated in five straight, has beaten 4, 9, 17 & 18.
- Rock Your World – 88. Undefeated in 3 straight.
- King Fury – 75.83
- Highly Motivated – 88.2
- Super Stock – 78.4
- Soup and Sandwich – 87.66
- Burbonic – 67.16
A couple storylines to watch. Kendrick Carmouche will be the first black jockey since 2013. In the early days of the Derby, almost every jockey was black, 15 out of the first 28 winners were black.
Luis Saez will be riding the favorite, 14, Essential Quality. Saez has a shot at redemption after being denied a victory due to disqualification in the 2019 Derby. Essential Quality’s Brad Cox would be the first Louisville born trainer to win.
I gotta cheer for Medina Spirit, a horse with the same name as the Great Debates moderator. Medina Spirit may not end up as a “value,” with six time winner Bob Baffert as trainer. Just glancing at the odds here I’d say Highly Motivated could be something at 19/1? Highly Motivated is a fast horse.
Bob Baffert named his son after Bode Miller?
The best odds as usual are being the house. If you’d bought Churchill Downs stock, $CHDN, the morning after the last Derby (Sept 7) for $169, it’s today worth $211, a 22% return (S&P 500 was up 18% same period). Even the most studious horseplayer would be pleased to gain that return from studying the form.
My call:
1 – Essential Quality
2- Rock Your World
3 – Medina Spirit.
Helytimes 